MATHEMATICAL PROOF THAT BAGGING TIPS
MEANS YOU’RE A GOOSE
“Anyone can tip an odds on fave – give us some value”
“thanks dickhead, ran dead last, mrs is crying now”
“you’re fucking rubbish, your last 3 tips have shit the bed”
I’m sure we’ve all seen the above comments (or some variation of them) countless times on our punting message board of choice, and most of us would be lying if we said we hadn’t used them ourselves, generally during moments of weakness immediately after we’ve thrust ourselves into the cold embrace of mi goreng and tap water for at least the next 4 working days.
I’m here to explain to you why, in the vast majority of cases, these tired old comments are mostly trotted out by nuffies who have next to zero understanding of the mathematical realities of punting.
The good news is that even the most hard-headed dribblers among us can be relatively easily educated. Let’s focus on 2 key concepts – expected value and sample size, all through the eyes of each of the above droolers, who are generally found laying the boot in while your best of the day is yet to stumble past the post.
Expected Value
“Anyone can tip an odds on fave – give us some value”
What if I told you that a tip on a $1.50 favourite could represent more value than a tip on a 20-1 roughie? You might tell me I’m dreaming. I’m here to tell you it’s possible.
Lets use a couple of examples:
Horse 1 is running at a midweek dustbowl in Central NSW. He’s having his first jog back after a spell over the short trip. The bookies like him, they’ve put up $1.50 about him for the win. Terry Tipster however, through his own form analysis, is absolutely frothing this thing, he gives it a 90% hope of winning. He tells you the $1.50 is duffel bag stuff, get as much on as you can. If Terry is correct (big if – but that’s the risk you take in the peer-to-peer tipping game), the horse will win 90% of the time and deliver a long term ROI of 35%. If you were to bet $1 on this theoretical scenario 1 million times, the results would be as follows:
Horse 2 runs on Saturday in a listed feature. The bookies don’t think much of him and are offering $20 about the win. Davo the Degen tips him in Punt Hub because he heard Laurie Daley give it a rap on the breakfast show. The problem is that the bookies have got this one completely right, they rate the horse a 4% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Davo barely knows what day of the week it is, let alone what hope he’s got. Using the same logic, let’s calculate:
Let’s say both horses happen to salute on the day. Back slaps all round for Davo while Terry is shit on in the comments, all for succeeding in the thankless task of finding odds-on profit. Of course, this very simple example could happen in reverse, but the point is to recognise that the price alone bears little relevance to “value” or “profit”.
“But!” I hear you say, “This is all theoretical”, this doesn’t happen in real life. You are correct. It is all theoretical, and it’s the same mathematical theory that ensures the bookies take half your pay week-on-week. It’s worth paying attention to.
“thanks dickhead, ran dead last, mrs is crying now”
If you come across a tip for a $3 shot, make no mistake; it is a mathematical certainty that it will lose most of the time. This rings true, whether it is selected by Brassdada himself, our lord and saviour Kevin Kocsis, or some bum at the track who’s minutes away from shitting his pants
The entire pursuit of punting for an edge, or a profit, is about securing a price that does not accurately reflect the perceived chance of an event happening. Mathematically, a $3 shot can lose 55% of the time (more often than not) and still be a wildly profitable bet. If you are accepting tips (especially free ones), you simply must be prepared for the reality that they will lose in most cases. Buckle up for the long haul and some of the lads may help you lose less than you otherwise would.
Sample Size
“you’re fucking rubbish, your last 3 tips have shit the bed”
The most appropriate response to this comment is “sick sample size, bruh”. Tipping for profit is an exceedingly difficult task, and when you’re constantly betting on events that are highly likely NOT to happen, there will inevitably be a lot of losing.
A good semi-pro punter will be happy to grind out single digit percentage profits and will take many hits along the way. It is far from uncommon to see a good tipster endure spells of 50 bets or more without landing any cash.
All are reaching for the goal of long term profit, and the vast majority are failing. If they were all succeeding, the CEO of Bet365 would not have raked in $429m
By potting a tipster for a single digit run of losing bets, you are simply demonstrating a fundamental misunderstanding of the game (ie you look like a gronk)
TL;DR?
Observe this simple rule of thumb –
If you are thinking about bagging someone who has gone to the effort to try and tip the group into a winner, don’t do it.
If you have never posted any tips of your own, definitely don’t do it.