SCRATCHINGS and DEDUCTIONS

Ok bum fluffs, let me try to get this across in the simplest way possible – so that we can start directing all the “bookie mongrel ripped me mum off” posts to this page right here and stop the rot on Facebook…

So you think ya’s have been ripped off do ya?

Let me try to explain what happens when you back FIXED ODDS and receive a smaller payout than you expect, when a horse is scratched. These are called DEDUCTIONS and they’ve been around as long as horse racing has, so no, it’s not a conspiracy that the bookies have teamed up to steal your $9 from you…

PRETEND RACE SCENARIO

Let’s break it down to a race with 4 horses that the bookies just can’t split – giving them all the same chance to win the race.

Horse A - $3.90
Horse B - $3.90
Horse C - $3.90
Horse D - $3.90

Now the market goes up and all you pigs in Punt Hub get ya pennies and have a bet.

Now for this example’s sake, the bookie ends up holding exactly $100 on each runner.

Now use your head and think about it: bookies are holding $100 ON EACH horse (so a total of $400).

Now only one horse can win (because there are no dead heats in this example so don’t be that annoying prick with his hand up in the uni lecture), so they will be paying out $390 to those punters who select the horse that ends up lobbing.

Holding $400 – Payout $390 = $10 profit to the BOOKIE

Got it?
Ya with me here?
SURELY that ain’t too hard to follow!

So far, so good, braniacs… dead set if you’ve made it this far, I’m surprised.

THE SCRATCHING

So lets pretend one of these horses shits itself on the way to the barrier like one of the boys after a rotten mixed kebab with the lot.

We’re now left with 3 (THREE) horses, aren’t we?

I’ve saved you the hassle and I’ve run the numbers and 4 - 1 = 3, so yes, we’re left with three horses.

The bookie now has to refund all the bets he’s held on the scratched donkey, so he refunds $100 to the punters (you lot).

So if you use that thing between your ears, you’ll see that now he’s left with the following scenario: 

Bookie WAS holding $400 but now has to refund $100 so is now holding $300.

At the original odds that he was giving, he’d now be forced to pay back one of the possible three horses left, (A,B or C) at $3.90 so he’d have done his nuts!

NOW BEFORE YOU KICK AND SCREAM AND SAY “well that’s their problem” – the reason that it’s everyone’s problem is that it stops any advantage being had by late scratching horses. Imagine the corruption if you could bet on the above scenario then trainers come together and arrange a scratching?

It stops trainer of horse D, putting $100 on each other horse then just scratching his at the barrier and making a mockery of the market!

So now – in this example to keep it really simple and easy to get the grasp of it, lets have a look at the bookies new prices that they would have put up, so they’re still effectively running a book to make profit….

THE DEDUCTIONS

But you all have a ticket saying $3.90 if it wins, right?

But that can’t be right as we JUST explained how easy it would be to just rort the system if there weren’t deductions… which 99% of you lot would DEFINITELY do….

… and so here are where the deductions come into play and you all fall out of your tree and start swearing that bookies are fleecing ya!

In this example, the deduction would probably be 26c. in the dollar… If you’re wondering how I got that, I just guessed that the new prices for these same horses that they couldn’t split, would all be ROUGHLY $2.90…

That means that your $3.90 ticket would get paid out at $2.88, maintaining the integrity of the market.

CONCLUSION

SO NEXT TIME YOU GO BONKERS about any of the bookies rippin ya off because “FIXED ODDS IS EXACTLY THAT… FIXED ODDS!!!” – think about this example (only if it doesn’t hurt too much).

Hope that helps a little, but probably not.

Love ya pigs,

AP